Ethiopia's Abiy Ahmed Reportedly Plans Shift to Presidential System, Eyes to Remain in Power Until 2037

UMD Media, January 4, 2025

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is reportedly planning a major constitutional overhaul to transition Ethiopia from a parliamentary system to a presidential one, allowing him to remain in power until 2037. The plan, which involves delaying the next election and drafting a new constitution, was revealed by Ethio Forum, citing sources from the Prime Minister’s Office and the National Dialogue Commission.

Ethiopia’s next general election is scheduled for 2026. However, Abiy reportedly intends to use the National Dialogue Commission to conduct a referendum that would propose constitutional changes. These changes would include transitioning to a presidential system and postponing the election until the new constitution is finalized. During the one-year delay, Abiy Ahmed would continue to lead the country as the head of a caretaker government.

The Prime Minister has a history of establishing commissions to gain domestic and international support before quietly dissolving them. Past examples include the Reconciliation Commission, Identity and Border Commission, and Economic Advisory Commission. These bodies were initially lauded by stakeholders but were later abandoned after serving their immediate purposes.

The National Dialogue Commission, similarly praised by Western nations, international donors, and the media, has drawn criticism for its limited scope. Abiy has publicly stated that the Commission’s agenda would focus on Ethiopia’s past and future but exclude issues related to current governance and power-sharing, dismissing calls for an inclusive transitional government.

The tenure of the National Dialogue Commission’s 11 commissioners is set to expire in February 2026 but is expected to be renewed to facilitate the proposed referendum. Ethio Forum reports that the Prime Minister has discussed his plans for constitutional reform with some Western governments, which have reportedly cautioned against such a move, warning it could destabilize the country.

If enacted, the proposed constitutional changes could centralize power under Abiy Ahmed and extend his leadership for more than a decade. The plan has sparked concerns about Ethiopia’s democratic future, given the risks of eroding checks and balances in favor of a more authoritarian system.

The alleged strategy has already fueled debates about the Prime Minister’s intentions and the potential impact on Ethiopia’s fragile political landscape, which is still grappling with internal conflicts and regional tensions.