Horn of Africa Scholar Kjetil Tronvoll Calls Ethiopia-Eritrea Diplomatic Rupture “Sad, but Foreseen,” Warns Against “Quick-Fix” Diplomacy as Tensions Move One Step Closer to War

October 1, 2026

Norwegian political anthropologist and Horn of Africa scholar Kjetil Tronvoll says the latest diplomatic rupture between Ethiopia and Eritrea is a further step toward a possible new war between the two countries.

Writing on Facebook after Ethiopia announced the closure of its embassy in Asmara and the expulsion of Eritrean diplomats, followed hours later by Eritrea’s decision to reciprocate and sever diplomatic relations, Tronvoll described a renewed Ethiopia-Eritrea war as a “logical extension” of developments he says have unfolded since the Pretoria peace agreement was signed in November 2022.

“By this action the two governments are moving one step closer to that tragic and devastating outcome,” he wrote.

Tronvoll said the deterioration was “sad, but foreseen,” and used the development to criticize what he described as overly simplified international approaches to peace-making in Ethiopia and Eritrea. He argued that initiatives dealing with the two countries require deep historical, political and ethnographic knowledge rather than “quick-fix” solutions, symbolic statements or what he called normative posturing.

His assessment comes amid a rapid diplomatic escalation. Ethiopia accused Eritrea of “direct and indirect acts of hostility and belligerence,” while Eritrea responded that Ethiopia itself had pursued what Asmara characterized as a sustained hostile policy and effectively a declaration of war. Both governments have exchanged increasingly serious accusations, though their competing claims remain disputed.

Tronvoll has studied Ethiopia and Eritrea for decades. He is currently Prorector for Research and Professor of Peace and Conflict Studies and International Studies at Oslo New University College, and managing director of Oslo Analytica. He holds a PhD in political anthropology from the London School of Economics and has conducted long-term fieldwork in both Ethiopia and Eritrea.

His work on the region includes Brothers at War: Making Sense of the Eritrean-Ethiopian War, co-authored, as well as War and the Politics of Identity in Ethiopia and research on Eritrean politics, human rights and conflict. He has worked on conflict and peace processes in the Horn of Africa for nearly three decades and has also advised reconciliation and international peace initiatives.

The immediate question remains whether the diplomatic rupture will be contained through mediation and dialogue or accompanied by further military and political escalation.